What Is a Black Swan? Key Takeaways A black swan is an extremely rare event with severe consequences. It cannot be predicted beforehand, though after the fact, many falsely claim it should have been predictable. Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to an economy by negatively impacting markets and investments, but even the use of robust modeling cannot prevent a black swan event.
Reliance on standard forecasting tools can both fail to predict and potentially increase vulnerability to black swans by propagating risk and offering false security. Compare Accounts. The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation.
This compensation may impact how and where listings appear. Investopedia does not include all offers available in the marketplace. Related Terms Grey Swan Definition A grey swan is an event that is possible and known, potentially extremely significant but considered not very likely to happen. What Is Anti-Fragility? Anti-fragility is the opposite of fragility, describing things that gain from chaos but may need to survive and flourish. Recency Availability Bias Definition The recency bias, or availability bias, identified by behavioral economics, is when people overweight new information or recent events.
Tulipmania Tulipmania is the story of the first ever financial bubble, which took place in the 17th century. Value at Risk VaR Explained Value at risk VaR is a statistic that quantifies the level of financial risk within a firm, portfolio, or position over a specific time frame. What Is a Crack-Up Boom? A crack-up boom is the crash of the credit and monetary system due to continual credit expansion and price increases that cannot be sustained long-term.
Definition of Black Swan Theory What is the definition of the "black swan theory"? What does "black swan theory" mean? The "Black Swan Theory" says that there are "Black Swan events" that have a major impact on the course of history. It is assumed that all swans are white, so a black swan which does in fact exist is seen as being impossible and unexpected. This is the same theory behind a "black swan event" - an event that is nearly impossible to predict.
An event that is unpredictable and unexpected in even the most detailed and carefully calculated of probability models. According to Taleb, "Black Swan events" have three characteristics: 1.
It is a surprise. Thank you. Was Nina really the black swan or was all that in her head? Did she really sleep with Lily or was that in her too? I just have so many questions. If you could answer them that would mean the world to me. So I just watched the actual ballet, Swan Lake after having watched the movie about 3 or 4 times. While the ballet originally has the two parts, the white swan and the black swan, increasingly, both parts are danced by the same ballerina.
The few parts where the two dancers would appear onstage together have been gradually removed and merged into a part of just one dancer. Which begs the question, did Lily ever exist at all? Karen-I had the same thought process regarding lily. Or Lily could be real, but just simply a soloist. I thought Lily was a hallucination multiple times while watching.
I think there are multiple scenes that allude to this interpretation. Half of the article is about The Wrestler. They are two different movies. Yeah but after watching Black Swan, I have a question regarding the relationship between Nina and her mother. Was Nina abused by her mother? Was her mother jealous of her? He has included a few clips from the movie! Also what was the point of the lipstick, like what did it symbolize?
Nina stole the lipstick to be more like Beth. My question is Does Nina really die at the end of the movie? She actually stabbed herself. She dies at the end, just like how the white swan kills herself at the end of the performance.
The ballet performance in the movie are supposed to parallel. Not necessarily. I think that both Aronofsky and Portman have said that Lily survives. What dies what she killed! Thomas and the dancers run to get help immediately, putting pressure on the wound fights the bleeding, and Lincoln Center is across the street from a hospital. She was the black swan, in a Tyler Durst role.
Pulling out the very essence of the passion Nina needed in order to sacrifice herself for the art. I only noticed this on my third viewing. Annie—Thomas introduces Lily in one of her first scenes as having flown straight in from SF. Lots of side characters acknowledge her presence.
There are moments where Lillys character even denies things that Nina was hallucinating. It was getting to her head that Lily wanted her spot, and she saw her face more and more. Thanks for such an in-depth analysis of Black Swan. I wanted answers behind the story plot and yours was the first article that appeared and the only one I needed to read. Referring to a great review in the N Y Times — we were in an elevator going to the fifth floor in the Hotel Ansonia.
Yes, I identified with Nina because she was me and I was her. First you were the mortal enemy of any baritone who roamed the face of the earth. Being hit on by everyone from Mr. X at Columbia to divos and divas backstage or in the coffee shops of Broadway.
If you sang like a God and I did, and you were drop dead good looking and I was — you were red meat. This was the asphalt jungle. Take away the green and smell of the jungles of Vietnam and you have just as deadly a theater to play in. The psychological abuse is rampant — whether tolerated from a jealous teacher who was a flunky tenor and became a member of the New York Vocal Teachers Association, or an overpriced coach playing for one of your auditions at City Opera.
The undermining comments were the same. I entered the stage from stage left and looked out to see someone who was supposed to be the director behind the glare of the stage lights under the balcony. I took my position in the crook of the piano. Vas vollen zi zingen hauter? With all eight high Cs? No, with all nine high Cs — I responded. Beware the tyranny of the weak. She was Ninas muse, what she envisioned the black swan to be, but her decent into paranoia and madness to be perfect makes it difficult for her to separate imagination from reality, almost like an imaginary friend a child might have.
Nina is treated like a child by her mother. Lily is a rebellion against her mother and how she feels others see her. I absolutely love this movie and see something new and more disturbing with each viewing. Especially with Nina. Was it significant to the plot at all or was he just there as a love interest?
Also what was their relationship status? Did they have feelings for each other at all or was it all just lust? Hey Gale! Broadly, Black Swan retells the ballet Swan Lake. So each character has an equivalent in the original ballet. To the point that at the end of Black Swan the credits show the movie character and ballet character. Thomas is, surprisingly, not The Prince, despite being, at times, the love interest.
The obverious parallels would be The Prince or the evil wizard Rothbart. Or a combination of those two. I think Thomas definitely fooled around with his ballerinas, but also had that fucked up idea that he was trying to get Nina out of her shell. But his role in the movie is someone Nina needs to impress and win over. The judge. When the movie is about her performance in a role, you need someone to grade her performance and give her hurdles to overcome and drive the story forward.
Or, weirdly, Good Will Hunting. Good Will Hunting is less dramatic, kind of. But the dynamic between Matt Damon and Robin Williams is kind of similar, narrative wise. Damon starts changing his behavior based on the interactions he has with Williams and the expectations Williams sets.
You could bring in a separate character to bring out that aspect of her. But you create more efficiency by having the judge kind of be that person. Thomas just lights the spark. I guess all of that is a long way of saying, yes, the person who caused her to grow up lol. I think Nina probably had feelings for Thomas born out of her desire for approval and lack of a father figure?
I was wondering at one point how Nina suppressed her itch normally as part of being perfect. It most likely took energy not to itch and not going that route. And then Thomas tells her to let go. Imagine you know that you are at the brink and in order to get further you just know that you need to go the extra step that will get you off the cliff. And then to choose this step willingly. There were many signs — Nina was overly adverse to physical contact.
Nina was attracted to Lily, not men. The most obvious hint was early on when Nina was in a bathroom stall and flushed the toilet with a foot after urinating — — while standing facing the toilet — —!
Become the Swan Queen by removing the offending body part. John Thomas : Our models it would probably change turnout by three points and that might just be it, barring a black swan event in some of those Congressional seats, with a Democrat imploding, a three-point shift [in turnout], is probably untenable.
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